The classic sports bet is on which team will win but there are tons of other exciting outcomes to wager on. One of the best is by betting on how many total points you think will be scored in a game. This type of wagering is called Over/Under betting or Betting on Totals.
It all starts when the sportsbook sets a line before a game to predict how many combined points they think will be scored by both teams. As a bettor, you get to choose whether you think the final combined points scored for both teams will be more (Over) or less (Under) than the casino’s predicted line.
How Does Over/Under Betting Work?
Over/Under betting is one of the easiest and potentially profitable bets and since it’s available in every sport it’s worth getting familiar with how it all works.
Oddsmakers calculate how they think each team will perform in the game and then they combine those numbers into one prediction of how many total points will be scored by both teams.
Here are the key points to remember about Totals bets:
- A bet on the Over/Under line in sports is a wager that only considers the total points scored in the game.
- If the casino’s line for a baseball game Totals bet is 5.5, for example, a bet on the Over will win if both teams score a combined six or more points and a bet on the Under will win if they score a combined five points or less.
- No matter what sport you’re planning to wager on, and regardless of whether one team is likely to dominate the other, you can bet on the total points line.
- Typically the odds on both the Over and Under bets are the same. This is because the casino is always trying to set a line that will attract equal action from the betting public on both sides of the line.
- The odds on over/under bets are usually -110 with the extra 10% representing the casino’s commission. A line with -110% odds is called a Dime Line.
- As a general rule of thumb, you can expect the line to be similar or close to -110 but this won’t always be the case. At times you might see a line like O -105 / U -115. Or even O +105 / U -125.
- The reason we sometimes see this shifting of the “juice” in the lines is usually because the house is trying to balance the total action they’re taking on each side of the line by making one side more appealing.
How to Read Over/Under Betting Lines
Just like all sports bets, Over/Under betting lines can be confusing at first. Once you know the basics, however, you’ll see they’re actually really simple. In this section, we’ll show you exactly what all the betting terminology and numbers mean, step by step.
Let’s look at a Totals Bet example from MLB baseball where the odds are the same on the Over and Under:
Over/Under
- Padres+8.5O (-110)
- Dodgers+8.5U (-110)
The Over/Under line in this game is 8.5 runs. This means that if both teams score 9 or more combined runs the result counts as Over. If less than 9 runs are scored, the result counts as Under.
With odds of -110, you have to bet $110 on either team to win $100 in profit.
In this case, the payout (odds) for both the Over (O) and the Under (U) is the same: -110. With O/U betting, don’t worry about where the O and the U are represented on the screen. It doesn’t correspond to either team; it is just the standard written layout for the Over/Under betting line at sportsbooks with the home team often listed on the bottom.
Now let’s look at an example where the casino is offering slightly different odds on each team:
Over/Under
- Padres+8.5O (-110)
- Dodgers+8.5U (+105)
In this example, you’d have to bet $110 on the Padres to win $100 in profit but a $100 bet on the Dodgers will win you $105 in profit.
How to Calculate Over/Under Betting
Understanding payout odds when you’re betting totals is important so let’s take an even closer look to make sure it’s clear. Let’s see what happens if two people bet opposite results for this (above) game so we can exactly what happens when both Over and Under offer equal payout lines of -110.
- If Person A thinks the game will have more than 8 runs (9 or more) and his aim is to make $100 profit, the -110 line means he needs to wager $110 on the Over in order to receive a return of $210 total ($110 initial investment returned plus $100 profit).
- If Person B predicts a lower scoring game and he thinks there will be less than 9 runs, he would bet $110 on the Under in order to also receive a total return of $210.
In this example, the sportsbook takes in $220 ($110 from each bettor) before the game and they pay out $210 to the winner after the game. That leaves them with a $10 profit. This is why the house wants equal action on both sides of the line when the odds are the same. It guarantees them a profit regardless of the game’s outcome.
What Is a “Push” When Betting Totals?
In gambling, a “push” is another word for a tie bet where the gambler takes back their bet but no winnings.
Most of the time you’ll see the line for Totals set at a half-point, like the 8.5 point line we used in the example above, and since teams can’t score half a point there’s no possibility for a tie bet. Sometimes, however, the line will be set a whole number. If the totals line was 8, for example, the outcome of the game can match the line precisely.
If that happens all totals bets are a push and everyone gets their money back.
Over/Under Betting Strategy
Like all other forms of sports betting, you want to do your homework with Over/Under bets. The more you study and take into consideration, the more informed your decisions will be. You want to reduce emotion and maximize logic.
Use our top Totals betting strategy tips to give yourself an edge on your next wagers:
- Analyze both teams independently first. Are they offensive or defensive? Do they have power hitters that guarantee more runs or a pitcher that makes it impossible for their opponents to score?
- Consider where they are playing. Are they at home or on the road? Is the environment much different than they are used to? Will weather play a factor? If so, how?
- Once you form an opinion on each team and checked out their statistics, compare how they’ve formed against each other in the recent past.
- The key words here are ‘recent’ and ‘statistics. Many punters tend to mentally overvalue teams’ reputations. Look for hard statistical data to use as evidence, the more recent the better.
- An example of this are teams that have earned a reputation for high scoring. It may actually be the case that they put up a lot of points in a few big games but actually score an average amount when you look at all their games as a whole.
You also want to take your research to deeper levels in order to think about outcomes from the perspective of the professional oddsmakers. This is just good practice and will make you a better bettor in the long term.
For example, in a hockey game, instead of just seeing how often the two teams score, consider how many shots on goal they generate on the road or at home. Do they generate most of the shots at 5v5 or on the powerplay? If you spot an edge here, compare it to how many penalty minutes the other team takes on average per game.
Is there something circumstantial about the game at hand that would factor into play, coaching, or strategy? Are there playoff implications for the teams? Go as deep as your creativity and critical thinking can take you.
Over/Under Betting Strategy in MLB Baseball
Baseball Over/Under betting can be really profitable but if you want to be a winning bettor you have to do your research. Follow these tips to get your studies started:
- Start with the weather and the stadium first. Each building is different and so are the elements. If it is an outdoor stadium, consider that day’s forecast, especially things like wind and rain.
- A dry sunny day might see fly balls carry farther which leads to more scoring. As well, certain pitchers get a larger majority of their outs from pop flies. On a given day that could mean trouble.
- From a defensive perspective, you might find Under bet opportunities when both teams have really strong starting pitchers, a deep bullpen, or a particularly powerful infield.
- Conversely, if both rosters are stacked with power hitters it might make betting the Over more appealing.
- Finally, make sure to look at each team’s managerial decision making. Does the manager of one team like the hit-and-run? Does he tell his guys to take risks and attempt to steal a lot bases?
All of the small factors add up to be really important so it is imperative that you gather all the information possible and use it to make an informed decision.
One final crucial piece of information to keep in mind with MLB Over/Under betting: If you think the home team is likely to be in the lead in the later innings, this may influence at-bat stats since they wouldn’t play the bottom half of the 9th inning. This could play a huge role in the ‘make or break’ of your Over/Under wager. Make sure you check out our daily MLB best bets to get expert baseball picks for free. Find out if your state has legalized sports betting on MLB before you go forward with betting.
